Meles Zenawi will probably win the election. But that may not bring calm

However much one tries to paint a passable and acceptable picture of Meles, he is a dictator and ethno-centered tyrant. Meles seems to have taken the West as hostage with fear of destabilizing Ethiopia unless he is at the helm of power. Meles seems to justify that Tigrayans are to rule because they are the saviors of Ethiopia and no one is there to do the job like them. This is as lame as what the west have been saying when they are bed fellows with African and third world tyrants. Meles is a dictator that kills and imprisons opponents and however hard he had taken Westerners as hostage to the fear of destabilizing the country, he shall be confronted and fought. Ethiopia needs equality of ethnicities and a stop shall be made to favoritism and nepotism with the lame excuse of seeking stability by empowering 6% Tigrayans as saviors of the country. For Westerners this is the kind of deferring instability for tomorrow and for the helpless natives that would have devastating effect when ethnic and political volcanoes erupt. It is easy to justify Meles's nepotism and favoritism for westerners but for the native Ethiopians who would have to deal with the catastrophe of instability tomorrow, life is not as easy as looking into the lifeless and mesmerizing stories that western journalists write from the lush desks of London and Washington. So please don't try to lecture us that as long as we have short term stability, we should shut up and swallow dictatorship and apartheid-like domination.

The other week I met a young, bright and well-spoken Ethiopian journalist who studies at the University of Oxford. While a responsible government would design ways to attract young professionals back home to help, the Ethiopian government chased this man and his colleagues away from Ethiopia because they dared to say things that the officials didn't like. We should stop pretending that throwing money at Ethiopia would lift the country out of poverty when successive repressive and corrupt regimes have forced its best and brightest to pursue opportunities in developed countries.

Six percent of the population lording it over the rest is unacceptable by any standards; threat of terrorism- instability or not.
The west should understand and prepare to take responsibility for creating the condition of further instability in the region and making Ethiopia a fertile ground for breeding future terrorists, by supporting a minority ethnic regime.
The West should understand that the Ethiopians are very proud and patient people who do not take this types of inaction by the Democratic West lightly. When the time comes to openly express their views and feelings they will not hesitate to show it.

In a country where TPLF officials control 100% of the military, in a country where the Prime Minister, his family, and fiends act above the law to arrest people that question their corrupt administration, in a country where people can only get a job if they vote for TPLF, in a country where the judges don’t judge you by the law, but by your political principles and affiliations, in a country where there is no free media, in a country where the main opposition leader is incarcerated for life, in a country where citizens get bitten up for opposing the government, in a country where only the ruling party can assemble anytime they want, but the oppositions are always told to get permissions which in most cases never happen, in a country where those who criticize government officials doomed as a terrorist, in a country where citizens are always treated based on their ethnicity, etc….. an election is just a game that can not bring change.

Meles Zenawi is a confessed killer who should be in jail now for the killing of at least 200 unarmed ethiopians on a day-light at the doorsteps of western embassies. The West's rationale of supporting Meles for ethiopia's/regions stability is delusional to say the least. Meles is an enormously unpopular dictator hanging on to power with a weapon he purchases with the multi-million dollar western 'aid' to Ethiopia. The Wests action is totally irresponsible and aimed at political profit in their respective constituencies. Beyond that it is a job security for Western diplomats who otherwise have nothing to show for in their embassies and foreign aid offices. With the fight of its own people Ethiopia will have a government that will care about its people's prosperity. Even then we still have to deal with westerners with the same interest but at least the money will do some good.

Just so we remember what brought about the present situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan was wrong-headed policy in the 1980s. We don't seem to learn any lessons that propping up tyrants ultimately costs every one dearly. Think also of the pent-up resentment in unemployed Ethiopian youth [80 percent of the pop. is 30 and under]and groups that have been denied political space. United States and Britain are working against democratic values they seek to promote [rule of law, transparency, orderly transfer of power, etc]and against the interest of impoverished communities in the Horn region by looking the other way [and worse, sustaining Meles and his ruling minority government]as human security is being trampled on year after year after year.
Read more here:
http://etrecycler.blogspot.com/2010/01/democracy-corrupts.html
http://etrecycler.blogspot.com/2010/01/united-fruit-company-by-any-other...

This is at best a high school freshman analysis. It feels like the Economist, or the author of this article took a google search and stitched it to make it sound like a respectable article. The lack of understanding or the malicious intent behind this article is clear.
First, the usual ethnic instigation of the Western media when it comes to Africa is clear. The ethnic background of Meles Zenawi is stated with emphasis of how much of his brethren make up Ethiopia. When the west elects a black man, namely Obama, it is a triumph, but when minorities are in power in Africa, it is travesty. Second, you point out Ethiopia has one of the fastest growing Economy in the WORLD. but at the same time paint the country as not doing well. Hmm? Aside having the fastest growing economy in the world, what else can a country do to get out of its misery? The fact is, Ethiopia is in a greater shape than it has ever been. Cities are growing around the country, highways are being built, fiber optics is being laid out through out the country, huge Hydro Dams are being built. In the next few years, Electricity will be the number one Ethiopia's export.
In terms of politics, Ethiopia has never seen a democratic government like EPRDF. Instead of blaming EPRDF for the shortcomings of the opposition, the Economist author should take a closer look at the so-called “opposition”, who are splitting by the minute and are undemocratic even within their own group. Kinjit, the 2005 opposition group, doesn't exist anymore, and that is not the fault of EPRDF, but the fact that its leaders cannot stand each other, and are now archenemies of each other, all accusing the other, stealing money and being a dictator. So, next time the Economist should really research better, and work hard on reporting the truth, instead of repeating the tired story of Ethnic strife and undemocratic government that is parroted by a few opportunistic opposition leaders, and as usual paint Africa with your misery paint.

What is this? The Economist, in its own reticent way, is screaming that emperor Meles has no clothes? Clobbered the opposition (we hope they mean through their draconian laws, arrests and torture and not through electoral defeats), human rights not central to the agenda, clamping down on press freedoms, refusing to release Birtukan and the list goes on....

and ummm we must ask...is our aid money going towards Mr. Meles' fedora hat and blackberry??

As always waiting to riot...

Love,

The Mitmita Girls
www.mitmitaye.com

It is really sad to see from the economist such unfair and unconfirmed reports for a country which is working hard to escape from horrible poverty.
No one could denary Ethiopia `s efforts and the incredible result achieved so far.

The success of the country is quite tremendous. Investment is booming, Infrastructure is improving at alarming rate. We are doing really well.
You are repeating the bullshit game of the arrogant opposition party.
But I `m very much amassed by your comment. Even you have never try to cross check all the allegations. I heard you repainting theirs. It is really shame for an independent journal.
Unless and otherwise you have some hidden agenda you don't have to set it like this.
this is simply the agenda set by Ethiopia `s enemies.
Please don't be such enemy
God bless Ethiopia and wish prosperous year for Ethiopia
Zakirr

The Economist and other international analysts are doing the same mistake that they have done before the 2005 elections. They said Meles's party would easily win elections. But the result was that his part lost ALL seats in Addis Ababa and lost with huge difference all the seats in other places throughout the country.

The fact is Meles and his cohorts will easily steal and grab the so called elections results. That is not a win. But in a fair and free election, the ruling party will have big difficulty even to get 25% of the seats. That is not a projection but proven result since 2000 elections where the ruling party has got much less than 50% of the votes in Addis Ababa but declared a winner simply because the election system was/is first-past-the-post, a systems that is not working well to reflect the people’s choice when there are more than two big competing political parties.

The international analysts will continue to be misled like this because they are fed by experts & expatriates of gullible understanding and/or those who are keen to sell the ruling party’s agenda. But the Ethiopian people know very well what is going on.

Shoddy journalism -- your assertion of great tension surrounding the upcoming election is wildly overstated. The overwhelming majority of Ethiopians have total confidence in the electoral process. They have the freedom to choose anyone they want without any negative repercussion and will accept whoever wins peacefully.

Your claim of lack of press freedom, just because a couple of press organizations shut down, is laughable. Could've come across your mind for a second that these few newspapers that closed down did so due to lack of adequate business and some of their members went abroad with bogus allegations to secure political asylums? By your standard there is a lot repression of press freedom in the US and United Kingdom for numerous newspapers go out of business every year.

Unfortunately, it has become routine business for some in the foreign press to base their reports solely on bogus allegations from unscrupulous opposition party members and some individuals with a hidden, self-serving agenda without an iota of effort to find the real truth.

Frankly, the foreign press needs to do a much better job when covering other countries. I expected a lot better for the Economist. You hurl allegations without any factual basis. It's really shameful and destructive. If you covered events in your home country as you do overseas, you will be out of business due to lack of professionalism.

Meles Zenawi’s democratic credentials despite your inane declaration is strong in the eyes of the Ethiopian people and those who really know what is going on in Ethiopia. Please try to do a better next time. Know the facts before pointing fingers if you want to be taken seriously.

This newspaper and several commentors are guilty of the very thing you accuse Mr. Zenawi (why do all Western journalists call him by his first name?) of being an "ethno dictator" and then you cite as evidence the fact that Tigreans make up 6% of Ethiopia. What Ethiopia needs is jobs, clean water, roads, electricity, hospitals, schools, medicine and peace. Those of us who are committed to making our land better do not sit back and think everyday about Mr. Zenawi's ethnicity. Those of you who wish to belittle Ethiopian politics may do so, but it does not make it right. Focus on what is being done, not who is doing it. Infant morality down, education and life expectancy up. Growth and development up and relative peace up. Let's move forward and stop this nonsense about ethnicity. You sound like ignorant Americans who feared that President Obama would support only black Americans.

It is unfortunate when even the Economist does not (or refuses to?) recognize Leninism when they see it. The members of the EPRDF are not quite "former marxists" (the dominance of state-owned businesses under the previous military socialist regime have shifted to party-owned businesses), and they are more than certainly still Leninists. THIS is why they are anathema to notions of human rights and liberal democracy. Their decision to portray themselves as democrats is one of tactics; they certainly wouldn't do it if they didn't rely so much on aid from the west to prop themselves up. Manage to threaten them just a bit (as was done with the 2005 elections) and their truer colors - more akin to that of China & Vietnam - come shining through. How reprehensible that the countries of west, most especially the EU & its member states who have just celebrated the 20 year anniversary of the fall of its own Leninist dictatorships, would turn a blind eye to this fact. How deplorable that they are not inclined to help end this tyranny, but rather to continue it by ensuring that this years elections will not rock the boat as much as 2005.

Also, Fortunato, I have to say I respectfully disagree with your assertion that it is 6% of the population lording over the rest of it. If we assert that what we have in Ethiopia is a dictatorship with many former Tigrayan rebels of Marxist-Leninist orientation, does this mean that the whole of Tigray benefits? This misinterpretation of Ethiopia's present ills is nobody's fault but the ruling party, and that's the way they would like to keep it. Currying fear & favor amongst the members of their ethno-linguistic/regional group is an easy way to keep them in support of the present dictatorship, but I can quite assure you that the repressive organs of the ruling party are much more vigilant in their "home base" than in other parts of the country. As a recent case in point, there were arrests made of Tigrayan farmers who dared to speak out about the abuse of aid by the ruling party (cadres installed at the most local levels of government distribute only to supporters) were quickly arrested for "lying to foreigners". An American journalist reporting for Bloomberg who went to the area to investigate their arrests, was arrested just as well. There is a very thick climate of fear amongst the populace in that region, simply appendaging them to the will of the ruling party is wide of the mark and extremely counterproductive.

The article, though brings out interesting facts, lacks thorough analysis and can be potentially misleading regarding some of its allegations. Unexpected from a respected media outlet.

and those advocating for a riot, you don't have what it takes to riot. so quit it. if you really want to riot, get off your comfy chair and go to the capital or to other places in the country and start making noise or riot there, that is if you have got balls. Most of you don't and that is precisely why Meles continuously wins. the man works 24/7 to control freaks like you and the rest of the population, you make noises 24/7 on the internet. see the difference?

Meles is a chameleon. For the West, he swears that he is a progressive. For China and his die-hard Marxist cadres, he reaffirms that he is still a revolutionary democrat. By doing so, from these three entities, he gets three things that are necessary for him to stay in power: money, gun, and political support.

It is sad that some of the ambassadors of the OECD countries in Ethiopia do not know the true essence of Meles. It is shameful that some of them do not want to know. And it is scary that some of them enjoy to be fooled by him.

“Stability” or “war on terror” or “growth” at the expense of “human rights” may work in the short run. But, in the long run, a country cannot achieve sustainable stability and development unless, as much as possible, all these things converge.

In addition to being an egregious violator of human rights, Meles, to add insult to injury, is creating a Babylon out of Ethiopia. Because of his implementation of the Leninist-Stalinist concept of ethnic-federalism, self-determination up to secession, the new generation of Ethiopians that come from more than 70 ethnic groups in the country does not understand each other. This Meles does to achieve his short-sighted goal, to “divide and rule.” But it is like a time bomb that may destabilize the country in the future.

...

Bye the way, in his recent interview by the Ethiopian Television, Meles says he likes to read each and every issue of the Economist.

A more or less balanced analysis. Congra to the Economist but who says a brilliant, visionary, and hard working Meles can not be a leader because he is from a 6% population size in a country?

Ethiopia for the first time in its thousands of years history on the right track and it appears to stay on the same track for many years despite the foul cry by few desperate power hungry Ethiopians.

Got Eritrea?

Mr Zenawi The brutal dictator and an Ethno -Aparthied Champion of Ethiopia .Should face justice in International criminal Court For his heinous crime against Ethiopian people .Zenawi is personaly responsible to order the massacare of about 200 ppl in a single day in 2005 including Children,Woman and seniors . He is a CHAMPION OF DEMOCRACY to the west and a partner to fight terrorism ,How one can terrorize 83 million of its own ppl and simmultaniously be a partner to fight against terrorism ???

Meles and his friends have brought many more positive changes to Ethiopia in 19 years what former leaders had not done for centuries despite the latter and their relatives working day and night against him. But that is Meles, he always wins! I hope he does that for many years until these detractors (who are mostly living abroad) die of their failure and Meles's success. I wonder why the detractors are the majority on the web.

..not will probably!but beyond a reasonalbe doubt,will win!!
why?
it is a 5 year plan with a benchmark of the 2008's local election.
Meles's problem is,he think he's the only one to give a solution for his countrys problem.And he is doing his best!!! but in a very dangerous way.How?
-key secret agents,key military officials,election officials,the judiciary(key ones),every office he thinks important with respect to power!!! are tigrians!! you find them as assistants,vices or deputies but they are the ones operating behind the curtains.And he knows how to keep them also! so,no tigrians around his office other than the securities,only servel 'yes sir' oromos,southerners do the office work around him.
-manipulate,distort,block...information of every kind(electronic,paper)related to make others think differnetly.is not because mobile phone and internet is expensive to give the service but he knows these are the way people see,know something different.So he can provide the service slowly by preparing himself to reduce the danger thanks to china.
-he used to creat and is creating 'yes sir officials' but after election 2005 he creats 'yes sir' new rich class,middle class,teachers,diasporas...belive it or not he did't miss any social class to be under him or not a danger for him..
....all the sucesses he obtained is only a work of mediocre states man and his 'yes sir' subordnates.And he will continue like this also with out sleeping,like making a house on the sand.
And the west need also a status quo in this fragile part of africa and considering also there home crisis!!