Free exchange

Economics

Labour markets

Still rising

Sep 3rd 2010, 13:00 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

GIVEN the consistently disappointing data we've seen out of the American economy in recent weeks, the outlook for this morning's August payroll employment report was uncomfortably uncertain. Initial jobless claims have risen ominously of late, and a number of indicators of economic activity have edged downward, leading some to believe that the Labour Department would provide evidence of a sharp retrenchment in labour markets for the month.

In fact, the figures aren't that bad. The headline number is negative—off 54,000 for the month—but that's overwhelmingly due to the continued drawdown in temporary census employment, which subtracted 114,000 jobs from the August report. Ex-census, the economy added 60,000 jobs in August. Private employment rose by 67,000 for the month. Since December of 2009, private employment has grown by a total of 763,000.

Meanwhile, revisions to previous months' data indicated a better labour market performance than was previously believed. The June employment change was revised from a drop of 221,000 to a decline of 175,000, and the change in July was revised from a decline of 131,000 jobs to a dip of just 54,000. (In both cases, the headline negative figures were also attributable to the unwinding of temporary census hiring). July private employment growth was revised up to 107,000 jobs.

Of course, these positive moves still don't amount to an economy producing enough jobs to rapidly bring down the unemployment rate. The jobless rate ticked up in August, from 9.5% to 9.6%. The upward shift doesn't necessarily signal a deterioration. Household employment (figured as part of a different survey from the payroll number) rose by 290,000 for the month, but that was not enough to compensate for the 550,000 worker increase in the size of the labour force. But at this point in the business cycle, labour force growth is a positive sign. Still, all involved would prefer to see the economy adding far more jobs; at this pace, full employment might not return until mid-decade.

Some potentially good news is the drop in long-term unemployment in this report. Both the number and percentage of unemployed workers off the job for more than 26 weeks declined in August. A key question is whether the drop is due to reemployment or departures from the labour force. The average and median durations of unemployment also fell.

Temporary help services continued to be a strong source of employment growth, as did the health and education sector. Manufacturing employment offset some of this rise, due largely to normal cycles in the production schedule in the automobile industry. Hours and earnings both showed slow but steady growth, yet again.

The overall picture is of a labour market that continues to chug along in the right direction, albeit far too slowly. The pace of employment recovery implies several long, hard years ahead for American workers. But given the mood on markets and around dinner tables lately, one has to appreciate the continuation of the upward trend.

Readers' comments

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LexHumana

@ The native

I thought you were serious for a moment, then I realized your post must be sarcasm.

1. "Abolish the minimum wage". This would accomplish nothing except to drive down the wages of existing employees -- employers are not hiring because of slack demand, not because new hires are too expensive. Most employers have already cut their workforces as low as they can go and still stay in business, so even reducing costs won't improve unemployment (although it might save some employers from having to close).

2. "Abolish employer paid health insurance." Personally, I agree with you on this, but it will have no influence on unemployement. Again, employers are not hiring because of slack demand, not because their costs are too high.

3. "Abolish discrimination against whites."
4. "Abolish discrimination against men (or all races). Women are promoted many times simply for being women."

These two statements are perplexing -- if a person is being discriminated against in hiring, that means that someone else got the job, which means that people would be being HIRED (which we know is not happening). The unemployment statistics don't make a distinction between men or non-whites being hired versus anyone else. The statement about women would be humorous if it were not ugly -- the pay disparities between women and men are quite real (although the cause of such disparities is open to debate).

5. "Stop immigration till the economy gets better." LEGAL immigration is a good thing -- it brings motivated individuals who want to bust their tails and make a future for themselves. It also can bring in additional talent and intellect. ILLEGAL immigration is a different matter, but even that is decreasing because of the poor economy.

6. "Cut corporate taxes, and keep them low. You have to get corporations to be confident that taxes will not be raised." Of all the silliness in your post, this one suggestion actually makes sense.

7. "Force banks to remortgage. house prices are declining fast, and loans need to be readjusted to suit this new reality." Letting people off the hook for loans they took out is bad public policy all the way around. It is better for the property to simply be foreclosed, sold at auction for a market-clearing price to a purchaser that can make the payments. The bank takes a hit (since the auction price will always be less than what is owed), the property owner takes a hit (the price they pay for taking out loans that they could not afford), and the purchaser gets a property free and clear of encumberances at a fair market price. All good things in my book.

tyrone shoelaces

The time is now to help your neighbor and our nation.

Every one who has a job depends on each of us buying something from their company.

We are saving our money and accumulating cash.

Please, go buy something to help us all out. We are Americans and it is the American way. Use cash to make a purchase. It doesn’t matter what you buy.

Our power is our spending and we need to assert this power.

Gas prices were projected to go to $4.00 a gallon a while ago. It never happened because we as consumers stopped buying and actually consumed at levels many years prior.

You see, no matter what we hear or read we use our buying power to correct market shifts.

The Financial sector ran away with our money. Now we are not buying from them. We have decided the best money managers are ourselves. We now have more of our own money in our hands(savings).

Real Estate went wild. Now we are not buying homes. Once again, we as consumers are correcting this market.

Credit Card companies charge high premiums for their services. Now, we look at their product in a realistic light and have decided to use cash and accumulate more wealth for ourselves.

We vote(purchase) with our wallets. It our own economic policy and corrects markets.

We need to spend though, for our sake, and the sake every American Man, Woman, and child to enjoy what makes our country great.

We now have learned the hard lesson of living within our means and it is good.

We buy now what is realistic in value and affordable.

happyfish18

Although the economic problems may be easing, the number of poor and unemployed are growing and do share the joys. It is time for Bernarke to do a specially targeted QE2 to help ordinary people left out in QE1, which was done largely for the benefits of the rich squids.

Jason in Chicago

Sir,

I'm sure you're probably referring to America, and the employment issues therein; however, when you refer to the "Labour" department, it's confusing! Spell it right- we speak American here! ;-)

straight, no chaser

@valwayne

I agree with your views regarding the stimulus and sympathize with your frustrations. Unfortunately, your post humors me. If you think that republicans will do a better you are either delusional or simply lack understanding of how washington operates.

straight, no chaser

@BailoutNation, you wrote: "Second of all, deport all the illegals! I don't care if they are Mexican, Guatamelan, Filipino, Vietnamese, Indian, Chinese, Australian, Somalian, Yemeni, British, Russian or whatever else, if they speak with a heavy accent and don't have proper papers, they're gone! That should free up 20m jobs, not to mention fix most of our school problems with children of non-English speaking illegals, esp. those from Mexico."

1. I've got a better proposal for you to solve this issue, listening: Tell your government to actually enforce the laws that forbid companies, businesses, or anyone to hire illegal workers (or strengthen the laws if necessary i.e. SIGNIFICANT fines that would discourage hiring of undocumented) and "the illegals" will leave voluntarily. They are here b/c of a great demand for their labor, kill the demand and the problem solved. Easy fix, isn't it? But good luck with that! I don't think most unemployed Americans will put up with the working conditions, pay and abuses "the illegals" endure. Yet still they work very hard and with a smile. You see, that's why companies prefer "the illegals:" cheap and easy.

2. I suggest you study NAFTA agreement and its impact on Mexican farmers and subsequently Clinton's operation gatekeeper. If you do, your enhanced understanding might explain why so many from Mexico are crossing the border.

3. Don't believe everything you read.

Sincerely,

valwayne

9.6% UNEMPLOYMENT, Tens of Thousands more lost jobs! An economy slowing down and about to go back into recession. You really have to stretch to find anything postive in the current job and economic trends in the U.S. The last paragraph of this silly article is almost a direct quote from Obama? If anything is clear right now its clear that the massive corrupt stimulous bill has failed miserably. It clear that the arrogant extreme left wing agenda of Obama and the Democrats has failed completely. Americans need to go to the poll in Nov and reject the Arrogance! Reject the total failure of the Elites, and fire every Democrat on the ballot so we can stop the decline of our nation!

BailoutNation

The first thing we need to do to alleviate the housing problem is to STOP BUILDING!!! Why can't anyone see that continued construction of new homes is depressing existing home sales? Real estate prices collapsed because there is an over supply of homes, stop building so demand can catch up! Instead the government is giving home builders tax refunds so that they can stay in business, while state/city councils keep approving new constructions to increase their tax base. How does this do anything other than exacerbate the housing glut? I'm sorry but developers just need to go die, end of story.

Second of all, deport all the illegals! I don't care if they are Mexican, Guatamelan, Filipino, Vietnamese, Indian, Chinese, Australian, Somalian, Yemeni, British, Russian or whatever else, if they speak with a heavy accent and don't have proper papers, they're gone! That should free up 20m jobs, not to mention fix most of our school problems with children of non-English speaking illegals, esp. those from Mexico.

Third, hike the fee of H1-B and L1 visas to $100k per visa. Use this money to enforce hiring of legal resident or citizens only. This will force the Indian IT firms to stop importing low skilled, cheap IT workers from India(shamelessly labeled as "highly skilled") and hire American workers. I've read that at least 1.2M Indians have been brought into the US as "highly skilled" IT workers on H1-B, L1 since 2000, many ended up working in gas stations, fast food places etc. through visa scams perpetuated by Indians themselves. Just imagine all those jobs opening up to Americans. No other country so shamelessly import their own workers by the hundreds of thousands to take over American jobs as the Indians. Can you imagine if the Japanese and Germans do that with their auto assembly plants? There'd be riot!

Thinker2

To lower unemployment, I would suggest a three pronged strategy to economic recovery:

Firstly, a housing stabilization program (where the government would receive first rights home equity in return for making part of the monthly mortgage payment for those facing foreclosure, with the government disposing of its share in 10-15 years). The current foreclosure rescue plans are too indirect, they involve some write offs on the part of the lender and also give away government money. Under my plan, there would be no government giveaways, the burden would be on the homeowner (by not building equity) and the banks possibly having to writeoff some mortgage balance in 10-15 years time. In return the homeowner gets to stay in his home for 10-15 years (as long as he or she does not default) and the bank to receive monthly mortgage payments for the same period of time. By reducing the number of homes being foreclosed, new housing construction employment will increase.

Secondly, a temporary investment bank to lend to those borrowers who otherwise would be able to borrow during normal economic times, but can not now due to risk averse banks. By the bank hiring employees with commercial banking experience and deferring part of their compensation to be based on loan repayment, it would help ensure sound lending decisions. Also it would only accept loan applications that have been rejected by commercial banks to avoid competing with them. After economic recovery, the bank's loan portfolio would be sold off to commercial banks and the temporary bank shut down.

Thirdly, to a limited extent and depending on how the first two programs work out - a stimulus program. By the way, the first stimulus program is still expected to have an effect, there was a delay because stimulus work needs to be planned first to avoid waste. Check out the article "Stimulus Money Unspent as Economy Struggles" dated August 16, 2010 on the CBS News website for more information on unspent stimulus.

The first two programs would be revenue/expenditure neutral (debt to be paid back by eventual revenues). The goal should be 5% unemployment and 3% inflation rate before the above programs are closed.

We seem to be close to a deflationary period hence the need for the above strategy.

By the way, incurring debt is not bad in the short run if there is low inflation and the purpose is to reduce unemployment to more normal levels. There has been huge debt incurred since the Great Depression and the Second World War, and the American economy has still thrived.

For those advocating tax cuts, keep in mind that people may just hold on to their additional money thereby not stimulating the economy and not reducing unemployment. Therefore, I believe my strategy is much better for economic recovery.

NIKHIL JAIN

US HAS VERY SLOW GROWTH STILL HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. BUT I THINK US WILL BE IN VERY GOOD POSITION TILL 4TH QUARTER OF THIS FISCAL. STILL THE GOVERNMENT NEED TO MAKE STRONG POLICY AND CONTROL OVER MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES. WHO ARE DISTRIBUTING A UNEQUAL PROFIT SHARE.
US GOVERNMENT IS UNDER PRESSURE FROM RICH PEOPLE TO NOT TO CONTROL UNEQUAL WEALTH.

Bull-dog

Well, this means that in the mid-term elections, Democrats are going to lose big.

Prehaps Obama will be another Jimmy Carter.

straight, no chaser

Question: Any thoughts on Net Birth/Death Adjustment (latest data below) in the employment data? A quick and dirty google search didn't return anything worthwhile.

Total 2010 Net Birth/Death Adjustment, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands):
Apr: +188k
May: +215k
Jun: +147k
Jul: +6k
Aug: +115k (The total number wouldn't beat estimates if aug's reading was closer to jul's or am I missing something?)

link: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Personally, I don't think the component seems very reliable and might be used to skew the numbers, some light would be very much appreciated. Thanks!

Georgina Rafaela Jefziva

So, What are you saying? If the unemployment/economic reports look so pretty and favourable, Why in the world are we fretting about and Why are we recriminating anyone when everything is just so fine?

SteveK9

To describe this report as 'not that bad' is ridiculous. If we add 300,000 jobs a month it will take 4 or 5 years to get back to unemployment levels prior to the meltdown.

straight, no chaser

"The overall picture is of a labour market that continues to chug along in the right direction, albeit far too slowly."

I don't think so.

1. Total hours worked were flat.
2. As a few posters had pointed out, employment gains were in part time. Full time employment -254k.
3. Although private payrolls beat consensus estimate out of the +67k 10k were construction workers ending strike and returning to work.
4.Manufacturing -27k

Private payrolls (the right direction???):
-April +247k
-July +107
-Aug +57 (minus 10,000 workers returning from strike)

-Flash back to Nov 07 +97k

Now that the stimulus is evaporating and inventory cycle is wearing off, buckle up for q3 & q4 and 2011.

ps: Helicopter ben in Jackson Hole: [The economy will] “continue to expand in the second half of this year, albeit at a relatively modest pace [and] the preconditions for a pickup in growth in 2011 appear to remain in place.” Good luck!

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In this blog, our correspondents consider the fluctuations in the world economy and the policies intended to produce more booms than busts. Adam Smith argued that in a free exchange both parties benefit, and this blog's aim is to encourage a free exchange of views on economic matters.

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