Asia
North Korea after Kim Jong Il
North Korea after He's gone
Feb 17th 2010, 4:55 by Banyan
JUST over three weeks after the Americans dropped “Little Boy” on Hiroshima, General Douglas MacArthur took off from Okinawa into another clear blue sky. To Courtney Whitney, his pompous if devoted aide (described by detractors as “a stuffed pig with a moustache”), the new American proconsul dictated a few staccato thoughts on what he would do with Japan:
“First destroy the military power…Then build the structure of representative government…Enfranchise the women…Free the political prisoners…Liberate the farmers…Establish a free labour movement…Encourage a free economy…Abolish police oppression…Develop a free and responsible press…Decentralise the political power.”
MacArthur then took a nap. When he woke, the plane was already on its descent to Atsugi air base just outside Tokyo.
If only someone had a plan like MacArthur’s for North Korea. This week the country celebrates the 68th birthday of Kim Jong Il, or perhaps his 69th: the exact year of the birth miracle on the holy slopes of Mount Paektu is unclear. Mr Kim has built on his father’s efforts to foster a totalitarian military state founded on the idea of racial purity and put to the service of a quasi-divine family. The model has a strong Confucian flavour, and also a feudal one, where a knightly band of brothers swears fealty to its king. But the chief inspiration is racist, militarist, imperial Japan of the 1930s. This is the grim tragedy for a land oppressed by Japan for half a century.
Even without invading others as Japan did, the North Korean regime will crumble, perhaps soon after the immortal Mr Kim's number is up or possibly even before: reports of popular protests sparked by a hugely ill-judged currency confiscation may be a harbinger. Thoughts ought to be turning to North Korea after Mr Kim.
Yet as Sung-Yoon Lee points out in Foreign Policy here (the picture desk has a sense of humour), precious little thinking about it has been done by the United States or North Korea's neighbours. At best, contingency plans exist for dealing with the short-term emergency generated by a collapse of power in Pyongyang. Even Chinese policymakers accept that American special forces might, or even should, move in rapidly to secure nuclear, biological and chemical stockpiles from rogue groups within the military. Chinese troops, in turn, would probably move across North Korea's northern land borders to enforce the peace there. The Japanese navy would bring in supplies to the coast and pick up refugees in leaky boats. A massive humanitarian effort, led by the South Korean military, would get under way.
But beyond that, nothing much. In interviews with South Korean, American and Japanese officials, I have often been amazed at the lack of long-term thinking about North Korea: out of sight, out of mind. But one thing I am pretty sure about in all the talk of eventual unification is that it will not, by any stretch, be unification, German-style. Far from urging North Koreans to come across the border, it is easy to imagine South Korean and American troops enforcing the 38th parallel to keep a wave of North Korean refugees from heading south into a well-fed land. And if they keep on coming, what should the soldiers do? Shoot? The desire to keep North Koreans in their miserable cantonment may prove a real test of liberal values.
The one exception to the lack of long-term thinking may be China. Its commercial interests in North Korea are only growing, as it eyes mineral rights and access to ports on the Sea of Japan. China's political imperative is for a stable North Korea. Andrei Lankov, a perceptive watcher of North Korea at Kookmin University in Seoul, raises the possibility of China attempting to avert collapse by installing a hard authoritarian, pro-growth regime in North Korea, something along the lines of China's. Perhaps a third-generation Kim might even be made the impotent figurehead, like Emperor Hirohito after the war, but the power would lie elsewhere.
A Chinese game plan like this would shock the region, humiliate the United States and upset all sorts of regional strategic calculations. But North Korea would have found its MacArthur, admittedly with Chinese characteristics.
In this blog, our Asia correspondents and our Banyan columnist provide comment and analysis on Asia's political and cultural landscape. The blog takes its name from the Banyan tree, under which Buddha attained enlightenment and Gujarati merchants used to conduct business
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[McJakome wrote:
Sep 11th 2010 1:49 GMT
Boredome wrote: Feb 17th 2010 4:16 GMT "How would a hard authoritarian regime survive exactly? The East Germans collapsed because the West Germans showed off that the West got it right. With South Korea right across the border, and with access to even Chinese publications what would stop the North Koreans from rising up against their Chinese overlords? And if they do, what would the rest of the world do?"
The rest of the world would do exactly what has been done about Chinese imperialist, racist, colonialism in Tibet, Xinjiang and a few other places: nothing.]
Who knows? The Chinese might one day help to FREE the genuine Americans, Australians, etc from oppression by the whites.
Forget the speculation of his untimely departure. It is more likely that our Dear Leader will outlast Obama in office.
North Koreans Mark 62nd Founding Day Anniversary
North Korea marks foundation anniversary amid speculation of another father-to-son succession. http://www.newslook.com/videos/248705-north-koreans-mark-62nd-founding-d...
I don't think that the North Koreans have any idea how wealthy the South Koreans are compared to them. If this problem erupts in 15-20 years instead of within a year or two, NK's transition to normality might be aided by the millions of extra young men in China, who might be eager to help themselves to poor starving young North Korean girls. I don't think that immigration will be nearly as big a problem as people make out - there are twice as many people in the South as there are in the North, and the ones in the South won't really have to worry about their northern cousins providing any competition in the market for skilled labor.
Boredome wrote: Feb 17th 2010 4:16 GMT "How would a hard authoritarian regime survive exactly? The East Germans collapsed because the West Germans showed off that the West got it right. With South Korea right across the border, and with access to even Chinese publications what would stop the North Koreans from rising up against their Chinese overlords? And if they do, what would the rest of the world do?"
The rest of the world would do exactly what has been done about Chinese imperialist, racist, colonialism in Tibet, Xinjiang and a few other places: nothing.
ARSE-HOLES!!! ARSE HOLES!!! WHY ARENT SOUTH KOREA AND JAPAN (not to mention Russia and the US) WORKING TOWARDS UNIFICATION INSTEAD OF WAITING FOR NORTH KOREA TO MAKE ANOTHER THREAT, COLLAPSE OR WAIT FOR CHINA TO INSTALL YET ANOTHER PUPPET!!!
Which do you think Russia would rather have, a more powerful China or a unified Korea which it could allie if Russia has another border skirmish with China.
Which do you think the US would rather have, a more powerful China or an intact alliance with a unified Korea and Japan?
Which do you think Japan and South Korea would rather have a more powerful China and another threatening puppet regime or a unified Korea in a peaceful northeast asian alliance to balance China.
Come on...these nations are just a few decades of being the next Tibet or Mongolia...just a few decades away from a northeast aisa war and settling into a pre-colonial passivity to the middle kingdom.
I believe that NK is rightly in Chinas area of influence, and unplesant as their type of government is,it is far better than what is the current state, so leave it to the locals.
Even now China should be encouraged to take the lead in any negotiations, it would be good practise for them to shoulder the responsibility.
@Innominata
">If only someone had a plan like MacArthur’s for [most Muslim countries]"
I have heard that the original US plan for post-war reconstruction of Iraq in 2003 was based on the MacArthur's plan for Japan (in which case, they should have left the Ba'athist technocrats in place).
In my brief experience in the ROK, I did get the impression they feel kinship with their counterparts in the North. Much less affection did I find for their neighbors to the east or west. Regardless of their historical origins at the crossroads of two more-powerful empires, the Korean people definitely possess their own identity and pride. I could not see a unified Korea as a client state of either China or Japan; more likely they would play one off another to extract maximum benefit from both (with some additional tribute coming from the U.S.).
North Korea will most likely end up as a Chinese colony.
>If only someone had a plan like MacArthur’s for [most Muslim countries]
@cs96
The problem with your idea of a strong, unified Korea is that it would probably team up with China and attack Japan, rather than act as against China in concert with Japan and others.
I lived and worked in ROK for a total of 6 years. When you see the xenophobic hysteria of South Koreans, who live in a "free" society..., you can only imagine what the North Koreans must think.
The bulk of South Koreans in Japan are or are the descendants of massacres in Je Ju and other parts of ROK. The better North Korean footballers also live in Japan, not North Korea. The first thing the South Korean army did was to massacre thousands of their own in Je Ju as the North Koreans and Chinese marched across the border. I’m always suspicious of rich South Koreans who earned their wealth by collaborating with the Japanese and/or enslaving their countrymen.
Why does the economist venerate South Korea and demonize North Korea?
But hey, the UK has such a wonderful colonial history…
How would a hard authoritarian regime survive exactly? The East Germans collapsed because the West Germans showed off that the West got it right. With South Korea right across the border, and with access to even Chinese publications what would stop the North Koreans from rising up against their Chinese overlords? And if they do, what would the rest of the world do?
"But the chief inspiration is racist, militarist, imperial Japan of the 1930s."
That's a simpleton interpretation of Banyan and must be very offending not only to the Japanese but to its victims.
This is the biggest lost opportunity in asia for the last 50 years that will have reverberations for the next 100 years.
One need not look far to who is threatened by China historically, presently and in the future:
1) India who went to war with China
2) Tibet, Mongolia and Russia all have history
3) Korea
4) Japan
5) Taiwan
6) dont even need to add Chinese presence in Burma and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
All of which would feel safer with a unified Korea that could act independently instead of as a proxy, a puppet, a banana communist nation.
The stability and security that asia desires...will not be found in a Korea that remains divided. It makes every nation more vulnerable to chinese hegemon that will only grow in the future. The hegemon that not even the US can confront in trade and currency manipulation. One must wonder what smaller less powerful nations as I mentioned must silently suffer...and what position they will be in with china in 25 years?
This is the biggest lost opportunity in asia for the last 50 years that will have reverberations for the next 100 years.
One need not look far to who is threatened by China historically, presently and in the future:
1) India who went to war with China
2) Tibet, Mongolia and Russia all have history
3) Korea
4) Japan
5) Taiwan
6) dont even need to add Chinese presence in Burma and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
All of which would feel safer with a unified Korea that could act independently instead of as a proxy, a puppet, a banana communist nation.
The stability and security that asia desires...will not be found in a Korea that remains divided. It makes every nation more vulnerable to chinese hegemon that will only grow in the future. The hegemon that not even the US can confront in trade and currency manipulation. One must wonder what smaller less powerful nations as I mentioned must silently suffer...and what position they will be in with china in 25 years?
A good post - and it suggests a possible line with N Korea. A key group could have an open conference to design a following regime; this would put enormous pressure on the current regime without actually costing anything much! This might even annoy them much more than sanctions.
Since the USA only wants to spread democracy, peace and prosperity, surely it should ask the UN to grant a mandate/trust to the PRC to rescue the DPRK when the Dear Leader ascends to immortality. The PRC would then administer DPRK as another SAR. Having 3 SARs would encourage PRC to write a new (federal?) constitution which may allow it to alter the details of administration in Tibet to suit the USA without losing face. Otherwise the sky WILL fall on all our heads.
The lack of long-term perspective regarding an eventual collapase of North Korea isn't true. South Korea has very good reasons to keep silence on the issue. The issue is just too sensitive, and any open discussion on a contingent plan for a hypothetical collapse would be deemed by North Korea as a great offense. And that is natural since the contingent plans assume a regime change. The author should be aware that South Korea wants to keep the relationship with North Korea relatively stable.
Nonetheless, long-term contingent plans are under discussion among the academia. It's just that such discussions wouldn't go to the press media.
The ideal situation for China would be Vietnam. However, given the presence of South Korea its not likely to happen. A pro-growth North Korea will eventually collapse or reunify with South Korea. The safest scenario is a situation akin to Burma, where a military junta takes control.